“Mr. Oscar” Meier’s Predictions: 2011

“Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit’s a WON-derful night for OS-car! / OS-car, OS-car! / Who will WIN?” – Billy Crystal

 

(What more of an intro do I need than that?)

 

PICTURE:

The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

War Horse

 

Prediction: The Artist

Preference: The Descendants

 

Whew! I did it – I watched all nine nominees before the ceremony (by one day)! And I have to tell you: It. Was. Challenging! The heavily dramatic submissions were the most grueling. I intended to watch a back-to-back showing ofExtremely Loud & Incredibly Close followed by War Horse, but the former contained so many gut-punch issues (possible Asperger’s, Holocaust history, divorce, and of course 9/11) it was a must to watch something unquestionably lighter than the story of a frightened animal franticly escaping the mortally dangerous battles of World War I (so I watchedWarrior, another example of my rocky judgment and bad habit of underestimating). Before these two came The Tree of Life, a film which takes the earnest difficulties of parenting, adolescence, temporary loss, permanent loss, the unfortunate graduality of acceptance from society, and many more of your favorite basic internal questions and rolls them into a nicely packed ball of sweet-Jiminy-what-did-I-just-watch. Even Hugo – the most family friendly of the recognized bunch – couldn’t show all its protagonists’ scurrying around without the donations of Asa Butterfield’s tears from losing his family (for that matter, a lot of the supporting cast’s leaky eyes as well). But bringing up Hugo is the start of a new segue, as the rest of the nominees get easier to watch and – maybe – better for the Academy’s voters.

 

Martin Scorsese’s Hugo wisely did not rely on wrenching drama alone, offering sight gags, whimsical music, and above all else some gargantuan 3-D-ready visual effects as nearly the entire set. This seems to be the appreciated tone of the frontrunners this year: a medley or a sampler tray of the finer entertainment values that movies are capable of, all present in one singular dramatic movie – not to lean too much on one specific genre alone. The first nominee I saw – like most of the U.S. cinema-going community – was the August-released The Help. It contained a certain emotional turmoil most movie-goers are sadly used to seeing with its given subject but knowingly interjected some breezy romance and laughs (including, yes, that scene with the pie). Both Hugo and The Help feel like steps in the right direction but also summon the sensation that each may be lacking a certain ingredient in nabbing the most esteemed prize of film. Midnight in Paris bravely turned the drama down to low, focusing more on magical nights of momentary bliss, but its efforts led to a feather lightness too weak for Oscar’s history. Moneyball (sorry, currently can’t think of any other way to say this:) threw a curveball at the dilemma, keeping the drama medley but applying it to what started as – and is typically still viewed as – a harmless leisurely activity. Its topics and issues were engaging for an adaptation of the true story, but the same could be said for last year’s winner The King’s Speech. Movie-goers without that sweet-tooth for sports may seeSpeech as a richer, more crowd-pleasing example of this, and we can’t have Oscar stepping backwards. It would cause mass hysteria!

 

That leaves just two. The Descendants was my favorite film of the year. To my great surprise, it touched me on a personal level – one that I am slowly learning other people roughly around my age may not necessarily share with me. I fell in love with the King family – with all of their imperfections, their idiosyncracies, and their wayward yet blunt approach at life’s obstacles. Together they personified – to this happily married man – some of my favorite qualites from both my immediate family and my in-laws, and the result was a very existential sort of satisfaction for me.

 

But the winner this year will be the film that gave this desirable drama-variety-pack the biggest disguise of style. Sure,The Artist – the film that dared to nakedly stroll into 2012 as a colorless silent picture throwback – has been described as a comedy, but appreciatively, its dark depth and frustration with change do not shy away in favor of cuteness or charisma. Rather early on, it overcomes a pace that currently seems unusual by giving us a story we (and Oscar) recognize all too well from this age of excessive media coverage, and the turmoil of prideful victim George Valentin (well-played by Jean Dujardin) is thicker for being one of the first ever cases of a type of fame so big and – at its set time period – so raw. It’s a dandy of a film, and I won’t have much fuss seeing it win tonight. Growing up, my favorite film genre was comedy; whenever a comedy is about to win Best Picture, it’s difficult not to root along.

 

Now, if we could just get another horror film to win…

 

My Fictional Ballot:

1. The Descendants

2. Moneyball

3. The Artist

4. The Tree of Life

5. Hugo

6. War Horse

7. Midnight in Paris

8. The Help

9. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

 

 

DIRECTION:

Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

Alexander Payne – The Descendants

Martin Scorsese – Hugo

 

Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Preference: Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

 

Before seeing Artist, my Pref was the director who probably has the least of a chance: Alexander Payne. Payne is viewed more as a writer these days, but he’s also no stranger to this category after being nominated in 2005 forSideways. I hope some day he is able to shed this generalization for he truly is gifted at the craft of film direction – asDescendants proves. The relatively unheard-of Hazanavicius blew me away with his direction. Had Artist not been so extraordinarily fascinating to look at, I don’t know that I would have cared much for the movie at all. I could say the exact same thing about Scorsese and Hugo – and definitely about Malick and Tree – but I and many others have grown somewhat accustomed to this pleasure with the living legends. Hazanavicius is as fresh as a beet – it’s exciting to see how he may grow as a filmmaker when his debut is this damned good.

 

As for Allen, he has a better shot at besting Hazanavicius in a different category…

 

 

ACTOR:

Demian Bichir – A Better Life

George Clooney – The Descendants

Jean Dujardin – The Artist

Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Brad Pitt – Moneyball

 

Prediction: Jean Dujardin – The Artist

Preference: George Clooney – The Descendants

 

I really wish I had found time to sit down and watch Better Life and (sorry, Tommy) Tinker Tailor. While I only know Bichir from his character on Showtime’s “Weeds“, I can tell the man has a boat-load of potential (which is why I never quit calling his nomination to occur). Oldman has been looked over by the Academy so many times, it still doesn’t seem real that the 53-year-old thespian has finally earned a nod. Now that he officially has his foot in the door, it’s time to give this guy some worthwhile projects (… You hear me, Hollywood?!?). Pitt is getting so close to winning his first Oscar we can all taste it; while a win this time would be dubbed an upset, his performance as Billy Beane is the most deserving of his career to date. This has been an exceptionally close race between Clooney (already a Best Supporting Actor-winner for Syriana) and – the newest face of the bunch – French actor Dujardin. It slightly reminds me of the 2008 race between Sean Penn for Milk and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler… which ended with Penn winning his second Oscar over the hoopla of Rourke’s gallant return. It will for sure go to either Clooney or Dujardin. Judging by potential set-backs, Dujardin benefits most by his (to the U.S.) rookie status compared to Clooney’s constant political rampages that may rub some of Hollywood’s movers and shakers the wrong way to a permanent degree. That said, in terms of the actual performances, Clooney may have the upper hand if voters find Dujardin’s contribution too borderline on modeling. It’s so tough to call… Clooney is a guy I only like in small doses, but he can be one helluvan actor when he wants to be. I think he turned in the best performance, but that is an opinion of personal bias for the film. Dujardin has currently been on a late joyride of winning pre-Oscar awards (including the SAG) so I suppose he is the guy to beat. In all honesty, it would be terrific to see any of these five win.

 

 

ACTRESS:

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis – The Help

Rooney Mara – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

 

Prediction: Viola Davis – The Help

Preference: Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

 

The only two performances I haven’t seen are those from the Oscar veterans – Close and Streep. It seems like the race is boiling down to either Streep or Davis – both of whom were nominated co-stars in 2008’s under-appreciated Doubt. Of the two, I would prefer Davis. There’s a reason I’m not rushing out to see Lady, and Streep is it. Her recent work – most of which based around playing highly recognizable faces of the past – started wearing on me when she was in this race for playing renowned chef Julia Child in Julie & Julia. It’s aggravating to see an actress of this towering caliber resort to the oldest trick to winning Oscars in the book, and I also detest the award-hungry implications it carries with it. It just seems like Streep needs to work harder than ever before if she is to earn a third Oscar; otherwise it’s Jack Nicholson winning for his half-hearted turn in As Good As It Gets all over again. Davis is a powerful talent who once again gave her all to the role at hand, but I’m a firm believer that a film actor is only as good as the director allows. I wonder how much more phenomenal Davis would have been if Help were directed by someone like Ron Howard or Paul Thomas Anderson. For my money, the most impressive was Williams. I was taken aback by her embodiment of late glitz extraordinaire Marilyn Monroe when I saw the poster and doubly so while watching Week. From what we know of the starlet, Williams’ singing, her drug use, her manipulation, her simplicity, and – most of all – her frightened confusion were all to a T. Williams was the most well-cast actor of the year.

 

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn

Jonah Hill – Moneyball

Nick Nolte – Warrior

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

 

Prediction: Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Preference: Nick Nolte – Warrior

 

Not unlike the MMA grapplers of Warrior, I fought with myself to not put Nolte down as my Pref. It’s no secret that Nolte – like his role in Warrior – has had an enlightening history with alcohol (merely his current physicality – the rough skin, the gruff voice, etc. – is proof to this). But then I found myself praising his performance to others with great glee, and after some self-analysis as to why, I realized that it was another awesome example of the power of association through performance. It’s why Katharine Hepburn was so magnetic during her final scene with her dying husband Spencer Tracy in Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner – to the point that she won one of her four Oscars. If I were Nolte, I probably would have bawled man-tears after every take (particularly – *spoiler* – immediately after his relapse scene). Nolte is crafty at earning Oscar’s attention, and just like every one of his fellow nominees, he’s never won. Plummer has had this award on his mantle since Beginners was announced as an upcoming release; I love watching the thespian in any role, but he’s too talented to be handed his first Oscar in this manner of type-cast congratulations (same goes for von Sydow and – to a lesser degree – Branagh). This should really be a race between Nolte and Hill – both of whom were more impressive in their roles than they’re getting credit for.

 

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Berenice Bejo – The Artist

Jessica Chastain – The Help

Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer – The Help

 

Prediction: Octavia Spencer – The Help

Preference: Berenice Bejo – The Artist

 

Spencer is the one to beat for sure because hers is not truly a supporting role – it’s one of the three leads. With the exception of the one performance I haven’t seen (McTeer, who I read is pretty hardcore in Nobbs), I’m rooting for everyone else over Spencer. Until yesterday, I had Spencer’s co-star Chastain down as my wish – not because Chastain was one of 2011’s busiest jugglers of film roles but because her work in Help gloriously, almost magically turned movie-goers’ heads and commanded them for their attention. However, much more is required to earn an Oscar (in theory) which touches on why I most want Bejo to win. Generally speaking, her role of Peppy Miller was all about head-turning, but with the handicap of delayed dialogue, Bejo was left to do the unimaginably difficult: earn acceptance almost entirely via visceral appeal. She wore her bittersweet heartache for her humbled equal like a badge, and when she wasn’t doing that, she captured the cameras (both within the story and outside) with elegance, stunning beauty, and some mean dancing. Bejo – also a filmmaker like her husband and Artist writer/director Hazanavicius – strikes me as a person of confidence while tackling any given task. I imagine we have not seen the last of her in the slightest.

 

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

The Descendants – Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash

Hugo – John Logan

The Ides of March – George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon

Moneyball – Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan

 

Prediction: The Descendants – Nat Fixon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash

Preference: Moneyball – Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian

 

A sudden surge for the Descendants team (primarily caused by the film’s Writers Guild win) leads me to believe they will trump the impressive offering by Moneyball‘s super pairing – especially since Sorkin won this very award last season forThe Social Network. They happen to be my two favorite films of the year. While I still stand by the perfect rating I gave Payne’s latest, I have to admit the biggest source of Moneyball‘s power was the excellent, compelling-to-all script. I truly hope either one wins (it would be pretty cool to see Rash a-k-a Dean Pelton from “Community” take a trophy home), but I gently tilt more to the behind-the-dugouts baseball picture.

 

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids – Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig

Margin Call – J.C. Chandor

Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen

A Separation – Asghar Farhadi

 

Prediction: Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen

Preference: Bridesmaids – Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig

 

This is another tricky one to predict, but it’s got to be one of two – either Artist or Midnight (the nominations are the rewards for the other three). I can’t decide which weakness will hurt more. Will the silence of Artist stunt its chances here too much to continue the unspoken tradition of the Best Picture frontrunner collecting the screenplay award? Will Allen’s catnip-to-aspiring-writers-everywhere script overcome his already Oscar-rich history – not to mention his outspoken disdain for the Oscars as an illogical art competition? In each of their favors, the aging Allen has an infinitely strong, not-to-be-underestimated following while Hazanavicius can take comfort remembering The Red Balloon proved that a nearly wordless screenplay win can be done. If only voters could stop, step back, and realize why Bridesmaids got here in the first place. Sure, it’s easy to remember the slapstick aspect of the comedy, but one shouldn’t forget that most of the jokes – including that food poisoning scene – have valid reason and all lead to a positive ending the characters must thoroughly work for to achieve. Early on and despite my hopes, I thought this nomination was an enormous long shot for the Apatow-produced summer blockbuster, but now that it’s happened, I’m a bigger supporter than I am for its co-star McCarthy winning. And correct me if I’m wrong, but I think a win for Mumolo and Wiig would be history in the making. Wouldn’t they be the first all-female team to win?

 

 

ANIMATED FEATURE:

A Cat in Paris

Chico & Rita

Kung Fu Panda 2

Puss in Boots

Rango

 

Prediction: Rango

Preference: Rango

 

Rango is the only one I’ve seen. It’s by no means a perfect flick, but it earns gold stars for sidestepping the often over-hyped 3-D option. The potential spoiler is the more adult-friendly* Chico which looks like a feast for the eyes and music-lovers’ ears. That said, the only foreign film to win this award so far was 2002’s Hayao Miyazaki-made Spirited Away(which may be one of the best films of its decade). Expect Gore Verbinski to collect a previously unforeseeable Oscar.

 

* – (Finally! I still say A Scanner Darkly deserved to be nominated. Waltz with Bashir probably too… Though I suppose the nominated Persepolis was aimed more for adults… Ah, well…)

 

 

And the others…

 

ART DIRECTION:

The Artist

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

War Horse

 

Prediction: Hugo

Preference: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

 

I can’t stop wondering if Hugo‘s nefariously gawdy advertising was an indirect result of the film’s art direction and style. It seems like something significant was lost in translation since the movie itself draws in the viewer rather eloquently with its nostalgic Parisian look (the reason I bet it wins – other than its unavoidable Best Picture nod). Still, I personally can’t shake the thought that Hugo was a good movie despite the burden of its overly ambitious approach in this field. Of the five nominees, my mind jumps immediately to Part 2‘s climactic showdown/demolition of Hogwarts. As a person who has never read the books by J.K. Rowling and thus was limitedly invested in the plot, the locations surprisingly stood out in a pleasing (if only slightly overwhelming) way.

 

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

The Artist

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

The Tree of Life

War Horse

 

Prediction: The Tree of Life

Preference: The Tree of Life

 

Since May – when I first watched its trailer – I’ve been singing the praises of Tree‘s DP Emmanuel Lubezki. But let’s not mistake Tree as a surefire winner here. As of late, this award has gone to a film with highly memorable action scenes (like last year’s Inception and – as one of 2009’s surprises of the evening – the mostly CGI Avatar). This alone givesTattooHugo, and Horse a little more weight to push around. As for Artist, I’m sure some voters are pretty giddy to reward some good ol’ fashioned B&W artistry. If this Tree falls (See “Best Documentary Feature” below to fully get that awful joke) – and it could for how polarizing some see it as – it will lose to one of the main-eventers; either Artist or Hugo.

 

 

COSTUME DESIGN:

Anonymous

The Artist

Hugo

Jane Eyre

W.E.

 

Prediction: Jane Eyre

Preference: Hugo

 

History has shown since 1996 that if the Best Picture frontrunner has entered this race, it will win. That said, if the frontrunner is in fact The Artist, next comes the hurdle (one that bested even the mighty Schindler’s List when it lost toThe Age of Innocence) of simply being a black-&-white film. Both Anonymous and – especially the most recent adaptation of the classic- Eyre should not be underestimated with their era-appropriate wardrobes (that further suggest there is a warehouse somewhere that holds ALL the past Best Costume-winning clothes for rental purposes). And from what I read, the clothes of W.E. are about the only thing Madonna’s directorial effort has going for it, giving the film an underdog status. I hope the Academy decides for a fresh change of pace while keeping its integrity; what better way to do this than by rewarding the vibrant Hugo? Take one look at Asa Butterfield in that orphan get-up and just try to tell me otherwise. Bonus points for self-awareness and not getting too hung up on the fact that the film is first intended for kids.

 

 

FILM EDITING:

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

 

Prediction: The Artist

Preference: Moneyball

 

Artist may have it in the bag for two reasons: a) This award – just like the two Screenplay categories – regularly coincides with what will win Best Picture, and b) dance numbers are addictive to this category’s voters (as are boxing matches and epic battles, for future reference). Throw in some surprises having to do with the film’s caption-cards, and that’s all win by pinfall. I saw Moneyball‘s nomination as a no-brainer due to the scenes on the diamond playing field. Sadly, its beautiful melancholy subtlety for nearly every other scene will cause it to be overlooked.

 

 

MAKEUP:

Albert Nobbs

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

The Iron Lady

 

Prediction: The Iron Lady

Preference: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

 

Most other professional predictions are going with Lady and its aging-equipped transformation of Streep to Thatcher, and therefore, I am not one to argue. Helping Lady‘s (and Nobbs‘) chances is – what I’m sure the Academy sees as a misconception in need of debunking – the naysayers’ popular opinion that this award should really be called “Most Makeup.” This time, in what I’d like to think is a rare result, I honestly consider the one with the most makeup to have the best makeup. I thought Hallows – Part 1 was refused this nomination last year, so I’m rooting for Potter now more than ever before. At least it’s the film’s best chance for a win.

 

 

ORIGINAL SCORE:

The Adventures of Tintin

The Artist

Hugo

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

War Horse

 

Prediction: The Artist

Preference: War Horse

 

Shaking off true accusations of borrowing the music of Alfred Hitchcock’s classic Vertigo, Artist will tap-dance to glory for its giant, unashamed reliance on its composer. It’s a great score that almost won me too, but John Williams’ second-listed recognition is the one that sticks out. Horse‘s score (which I imagine some voters may find a tad upstaging – a common Williams flaw) struck me as a nice balance with gallop for Spielberg’s scenic vision.

 

 

ORIGINAL SONG:

“Man or Muppet” – The Muppets

“Real in Rio” – Rio

 

Prediction: “Man or Muppet” – The Muppets

Preference: “Man or Muppet” – The Muppets

 

Any fans of comedy band Flight of the Conchords might find satisfaction to learn that both members – Bret McKenzie and Jemaine Clement – have been somewhat reunited with this odd outcome of only two competitors; McKenzie wrote all ofMuppets‘ songs while Clement supplied the voice of Rio‘s villainous cockatoo. I won’t beat a dead horse anymore than I have to; Muppets was better in every imaginable way. Rio stands even less of its coin-toss chance by a) going up against its opponent’s best musical moment, b) being represented by its slap-dash intro, and c) paling in comparison to any other Oscar-nominated movie of any category on the entire line-up.* It’s McKenzie’s to lose. In closing, it’s too bad Karen O’s rendition of “Immigrants Song” for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo is (duh) a cover. Would’ve been cool to see it nominated against this kiddie fare.

 

* – To be fair, I still have not seen W.E. or Transformers: Dark of the Moon.

 

 

SOUND EDITING:

Drive

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

 

Prediction: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Preference: War Horse

 

Notice how last year’s Best Original Score-winners Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (well-earned for The Social Network) are nowhere to be seen in this year’s roster for Score? Yeah. No offense to Rooney Mara, but I have a strong feeling the David Fincher flick – a smorgasborg of wintery isolation to the ears – has its best chances with both sound categories. I’m almost completely in favor of the trilogy-starter rocking both, but this award for sound effects – by a nose – gets me remembering the grand-scale combat (and neighing) of another technical-award hopeful: Horse. Since this is the sole nomination for the critically acclaimed Drive, I’m also not counting out an upset either.

 

 

SOUND MIXING:

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

 

Prediction: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Preference: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

 

What can I say? I embraced the unsettling nature established for the Nordic tragi-mystery. I have no problem at all ifGirl… um,… sails away, sails away, sails away with this Oscar.

 

 

VISUAL EFFECTS:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2

Hugo

Real Steel

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

 

Prediction: Hugo

Preference: Hugo

 

… I almost put Rise as my Pref solely due to the Supporting Actor snub of mo-cap extraordinaire Andy Serkis, but then I remembered how the direction and stunt choreography (the tree-scaling and such) ran into difficulty preparing for the VFX step – often coming off as choreographed instead of realistic. I expect this personal opinion to prove too much of an afterthought for voters who may feel the same – especially since Rise was the most surprisingly well-received nominee of the summer season. I wouldn’t necessarily say I have a hands-down favorite of the bunch, but I do remember Hugoseeming more visually arresting (and therefore perhaps more mentally-engrained to viewers) than the others. I hated the “wind-up mouse toy” stop-motion shot though… I suppose there’s a chance the die-hard Potter fans may swoop in here…

 

 

***No Preferences from this point on – only Predictions.***

 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Bullhead (Belgium)

Footnote (Israel)

In Darkness (Poland)

Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)

A Separation (Iran)

 

Prediction: A Separation (Iran)

 

Whenever there is an uber-strong leader for this award (which – with its Original Screenplay nomination – appears to be the case for Separation), it is difficult to forget the time when the much-ballyhooed Pan’s Labyrinth lost to the relatively unknown The Lives of Others in 2007. Because of this, I more hesitantly choose Separation over the lurking-in-the-shadows Holocaust-centric Darkness. Will Separation lose steam as the awards-juggernaut it has repeatedly shown itself as? I’m thinking not quite yet.

 

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Hell and Back Again

If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Pina

Undefeated

 

Prediction: Pina

 

The fact that the Paradise trilogy (mainly this installment) played a significant part in the positive(?) outcome of its subject – the West Mephis Three trials – is stealing a lot of attention here. If it is doing so for the Academy is another question. Pina – a snub for Best Foreign Language Film – has an extraordinary look, Hell has run a good campaign,Undefeated is picking up late steam, and Tree has arguably been the most available to outsiders with its inclusion on Netflix Instant. Honestly, there is a case to be made for each nominee. While Paradise‘s seems the most pertinent, I suspect the omission edge will be enough to provide Pina the victory

 

 

ANIMATED SHORT:

Dimanche/Sunday

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

La Luna

A Morning Stroll

Wild Life

 

Prediction: La Luna

 

So often I have picked the Pixar short to win here, and 90% of the time I am wrong. The only reason I am not breaking the tradition this year and proceeding to go with the short that will follow this summer’s greatly anticipated Brave is because of the animation studio’s first-time failure to have a contender for Animated Feature (the omission of Cars 2). Hardcore Pixar fans have no other choice to vote for. If any other nominee could win, it will either be Lessmore (from the same animator as 2005’s Robots) or BAFTA winner Stroll.

 

 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement

God is the Bigger Elvis

Incident in New Baghdad

Saving Face

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

 

Prediction: Saving Face

 

The first two – as relevant as their topics may be – are filler compared to the raw truths shot in IncidentFace, andTsunamiFace – based around a makeup artist’s helping hands toward Pakistani acid-attack victims – will probably draw the most votes.

 

 

LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Pentecost

Raju

The Shore

Time Freak

Tuba Atlantic

 

Prediction: Tuba Atlantic

 

Possible spoiler could be Time Freak – or, if the Academy decides Irish character actor Ciaran Hinds (There Will Be Blood,The Debt) deserves even more of a career push, The Shore. Atlantic is gorgeous and humorous (so I hear, anyway).

 

 

SO LET’S SEE HOW I DO! Happy Oscar Day to all!

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